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A New I/O, A New Computing Paradime

Until recently, much of the I/O (Input/Output) to a computer largely revolved around the KVM (Keyboard, Video, Mouse) paradigm.  Users sometimes had a “KVM” switch at their computer desk, allowing 2 different computers to be used at a desk with 1 set of monitor, keyboard, and mouse in place, hence the KVM term.

Then, more recently, the situation shifted to AVG: Audio, Video, GPS becoming more critical as a new paradigm.   We now have in home speakers with Siri, or Video capture in the Ring device at a doorbell camera, or in smartphone camera, and GPS geolocation in smartphones.  These are the new inputs in the current mobile/smarthome arena.    The user is inputting key data to the app via the AVG paradigm in the mobile use case.

Next up, we may see growth in IOT, robotics, and M2M (Machine-to-Machine) communications.   These will be a next extension of the mobile ecosystem.   These will center around many types of sensors to acquire data and remote controllers.  In addition, there will be more use of AI/ML to detect repeat workflows than can occur from events, alerts, and/or triggers.  These will then automatically toggle a series of events in a workflow to occur in a large integrated data system.

Next Generation Programming Languages Driving the Next Generation of Computing Innovation

The computer industry moves in cycles, like many other industries.

Earlier, the hardware upgrade cycles drove innovation waves in the computing industry.  As the hardware become more mature, and the innovation slowed (end of Moore’s Law), the innovation focus shifted to software and system integration.

The software innovation cycles are often driven by new languages while enable new features to be viable or a new way of development.

We have seen

Generation0 : Assembly Language (1 and 0s)

Generation1: (mostly Procedural Language)  Basic, C, Fortran, Cobol, Pascal

Generation2: (mostly OOP, Object Oriented Languages) C++, Java, Objective-C, C#, PHP

Generation3: ( AI, ML, Data Science languages or low-level code languages )  Python, R, Ruby, Swift, Go

The newer languages will be the ones to watch.  These will drive innovation since they are well-adept to handle data analytics and machine learning.  Some of these are good at low-level code, which means they are simpler to learn and smaller teams can archive more with their simpler syntax.

The Cryptocurrancy and Blockchain Game-Changer

There are many hot areas in the world of technology and business….. but one of the hottest is cryptocurrency, and its database, the Blockchain.   Cryptocurrancy will impact computing, business, and society in a big way.  We are in the very early days of the cryptocurrency adoption cycle.

Cryptocurrancy’s value proposition includes being able to transact in new ways and more efficiently than traditional e-commerce or other commerce models.  Traditional e-commerce uses the merchant account (credit card) system a system that needed 2.5 to 5% per transaction.  The transaction cost of the merchant account system make it pricy when compared with alternatives like Litcoin, LTC, which often has a transaction cost of less than 0.1%.   Long term is it almost inevitable, just based on transactional costs, that the cryptocurrency sector is poised to take over major parts of e-commerce.

How can cryptocurrancy transact deal cheaper?   It’s dramatically more efficient than the merchant account system and does not rely on an intermediary bank to be in the transaction.   This significantly lowers the operational costs of the cryptocurrency transactional network as opposed to the merchant account system.

 

Some high level people are predicting a continues, dramatic increase in cryptocurrancy value and use, including

Tim Draper, famous Venture Capitalist, said he feels Bitcoin will be over $ 250,000/ BTC by 2022.

John McAfee, computer security expert, founder of McAfee security.  John McAfee predict the price of bitcoin will go over $500,000/BTC.

Robert Thiel, purchased a large position of Bitcoin (BTC) in January 2018.  Mr. Thiel is one of the founders of PayPal.

Goldman Sachs will be starting a cryptocurrancy trading desk in the summer of 2018.

 

 

The democratization of business jet travel and location revolution

We are witnessing the exciting, long-awaited move to localized airports for general flight travel in the USA, made possible by commercial flights on much smaller aircraft. These smaller aircraft are also known as general aviation or business jets. It’s been tried many times, but this time it has real traction. The move to localized municipal airports will be a game-changer, with a cascading impact to be felt by business, real estate, and society. These small aircraft allow your flight plans to be more closely aligned with your specific travel needs, rather than flying with large number of people on a big airplane.

Smaller aircraft > smaller runway > service smaller cities > changing the business model away from big city dependancy. This opens a whole new world of more flexible air travel. It works with smaller economizes of scale, but greater flexibility. The per-seat price is often getting closer to regular commercial air travel. It also can operate at a lower-cost airport with lower rent prices on the terminals, and the pilots usually need simpler certifications to fly smaller aircraft.

Time savers, with simpler parking, logistics, and away from big crowds make the small aircraft travel more efficient.
The smaller aircraft can access shorter runways, unlike a regular passenger jet like a Boeing 737 that needs a large runway at a large airport, usually near a big city.

The key example of the this new trend is JetSuiteX, a service of JetSuite. JetSuiteX offers a per-use, per-seat ticket sale, allowing a normal person to buy a single ride on a small aircraft, like a 30 seat business jet, whereas JetSuite uses a subscription model. So JetSuiteX is effectively competing directly with the commercial airline industry. Their innovate approach is validated with a recent investment from JetBlue. I was amazed to see the JetSuiteX tickets were about the same price as SouthWest…. Wow! But, it allows the ability to fly to some of the smaller municipal airports. Other players in the industry are also moving forward, like SurfAir, LinearAir, Blade, and BlackBird. Many of them are subscription based, while others are charter flights.

This was a dream that was long in the coming. There was a plan to have small feeder airports in southern California connect to LAX at one time. Cessna popularized general aviation and LearJet pioneered early business jets. Later, companies like DayJet worked to have affordable small business jets that could travel to many airports.

This revolution will impact business, real estate and strategy in the future in a big way. Where cities and business can logically be located is no longer constrained to large MSA, metro service areas, for a high technology business. Rather they can now fly in and have access to more remote locations. Watch for big things in transportation and business locations to be happening around the up and coming general aviation and charter routes. Some of the early ones are happening around ski resort towns, with travel to business tech hubs, like Mammoth Lakes, CA to San Jose, CA via JetSuiteX.

 

End of Moore’s Law and the new innovation cycles

For a long time, the computer business was the mainstay of the tech industry and 3-year upgrades of hardware empowered new types of software applications.   This was known as Moore’s law, whereby the CPU microchip speeds would increase by 10x about every 3 to 5 years.

Moore’s law was a boon for most western economies.  It allowed a fairly predictable increase in worker productivity to continue from the 1970s to around 2005.   It then slowed from 2005 to 2007.   Around 2007, microchip speeds generally peaked at around 2.4 to 3.4 Ghz.  This is said to be due to physical quantum limits.  The chip speed today is still around 3 GHz, 10 years later.   If Moore’s law was still in effect, we would have around 300 GHz chips today!!!  So what happened instead?

Well, we had a focus on miniaturization of devices (mobile). The mobile boom, largely driven by the iPhone and other smartphones, allowed a boost in productivity for mobile workers and a new mobile app ecosystem to develop.

In additional there was shift to multi-core chips.   Then it shifted to cluster computing and cloud computing.  This cluster of servers with many, many computing core chips all working together allowed the server room to become the new workstation computer, i.e. the cloud.  And thus another reason the tech innovation from 2007 to now has focused heavily on cloud computing, because that is where an increase in raw computing power can occur, which allows new types of software apps to be developed.

The next phases of development may include faster connection to the cloud, watch the 5G wireless rollout as a big deal.